WIll the USA Stockmarket Crash?


Hmmmmmmmm sort of.
 
Dunkin donuts will keep selling donuts and keep making profits. What WILL happen is the speculators in DD will exit for ‘safer’ investments. Average Joe will still live his life, so the crash will have a ‘bottom’. USA made stuff will continue to be sold to Americans. Imported stuff will be more expensive as USA has to swap USD for Yuan to buy crap to sell in Walmart, so Average Joe will spend less, causing Walmart’s earnings and share price to drop because Walmart need Yuan to buy crap. So, a ‘double bottom’ in sharemarket terms (or the more prosaic ‘Dead cat bounce’). A low when the profit takers exit, followed by a “Now it’s all better” uptick then another low when Average Joe stops spending due to low wages and high prices hammering sales volume and profits.
 
To some extent USA is shielded because the rest of the World will carry on without them. You have 300m customers, there are over 8bn people in the World. Unlike 1920 when most producers and manufacturers made and sold locally, we are now in a global market and can sell and source from almost anywhere.
 
Somehow, USA needs to move from import led economy where every $ is manufactured and spent overseas, to an export led economy. Most things you need are from places like China so you need to ‘earn’ Yuan to buy Chinese goods.
 
To compete – you need to lower your costs, so labour will be first hit, then property prices (Which affects the rent a factory can pay). Machinery will stay the same because other countries can pay the price. If you won’t pay for a sock making machine, Brazil will and then sell you the socks. Someone will always step into the market vacuum.
Best exports? ‘Intelligence and research’ – ‘Goods’ where the USA leads the world.
 
As mortgages are a large part of your ‘wealth’ – expect to see that eroded savagely. Just look at the $1 houses in Detroit – now expand the area a lot.
Pensions – Gone, under the guise of ‘Homeland security’ or something dreamt up by the spin doctors. “If you have the money you might send it to a terrorist, so we will keep it safe in Fort Knox” (Where all the imaginary gold is kept).
 
To preserve ‘wealth’ – find a way to ‘make’ something the World will pay for. Earn in overseas markets and keep the wealth there, ready to do more business. Sell into ‘rich’ countries.
 
Land that produces a saleable product is good to a point. The ‘locals’ have already done that and optimised the cost and sale prices, so a newcomer won’t make a killing. BUT! if you can ‘add value’ by turning guavas into guava vodka and sell it to people you know overseas – NOW you are on the right track. (Alcohol and drugs sell very well in a depression).
 
So bridging your local market to an overseas one is the most secure strategy.