I think the end of the year will bring people considering ‘Next year’ as it always does. The election probabilities will affect their thinking significantly.
The picture is dire and can’t be buoyed by patriotism and talk so it’s a case of who loses confidence first.
The smart money is gone ‘Planted’ overseas to grow there.
I think unemployment will rise and business investment will drop due to election uncertainty after Christmas thinking time. These will start a slow downward spiral. The powers that be will try and spin it as an unsettled population will revolt.
How long can they spin the plates? – Perhaps 2-3 years, but the daily reality will be increasingly untenable before that. Like boiling the frog. If you are ‘rich’ it will take longer. The point of revolution will take a while to reach, but the slow incremental change will take out the ‘Bang’ and it will just deflate quietly to zero.
The Cypriots just wore the theft of their money, so there is a proven template to follow. The tent city in CA is talked about but no-one there has tried to shoot the Governor yet – they are passively accepting their fate and the media are helping dampen the anger and outrage. Expect more of the same, just amped up.
There will not be a ‘Bang’ day but the turning point in my mind is Christmas and it will be a long slow slide until each person does the sums. TV and lotteries calm the masses by distraction but the reality takes a while to sink in. Is it the end of the world or just a bad day at the office?
Election day will bring the reality closer. Perhaps a devaluation hidden by ‘healthcare / social needs’ tax increases. Not an obvious depreciation but a sinking lid as the fire under the frog is lit.
Then comes the ‘Obama wasted a lot of money – we need austerity and we need to wind back Obamacare’ stunt. Theft of your wages disguised as ‘For your own good – wasn’t our fault’. Endless versions ‘Raise state taxes to counter the drought, build new dams (Line my mate’s contracting company pockets with cost over-runs). Slow theft, disguised and hyped, buried in the papers under the Kardashian’s latest baby pics.
Battle weary people will grumble, swallow the BS and go back to work. One day they realise they can’t afford the house but nobody will listen to their tale of woe – One person in a crowd.
Zero hours contract casual work ‘To allow the economy flexibility’ = You are so insecure you are compliant and desperate for work we can now move to a slave labour model. After all, prisoners do a lot of ‘free’ work for the economy already. You will have the illusion of freedom but the reality is you need the few hours work we throw at you to survive so you won’t bite the hand that throws the crumbs.
So a docile compliant, workforce and population will emerge. Slowly and incrementally.
Reasons – China’s aging workforce and demands for better wages. Their investments in US (and other) infrastructure will be harvested. All those US Treasuries? – Owned by China who will await the best time for a bargain before cashing them in. YOU are the collateral security for the US borrowings, so YOU need to be kept working and earning and paying tax so we can harvest the $ to pay China.
Reasons – Tiny house movement and kids bailing out (Spain lost 500,000 people to Brazil) will NOT accept being farmed for money. They are not loyal to the system. New age hippies.
Reasons – Internet allows easier communication of ideas, wealth etc. so much easier to research and take action for all internet users not just the rich and well connected. Democracy for those with the mindset and entrepreneurship.
Age – Youth today are happy to teach English in Thailand – We’d never heard of the place.
Expectations – The oldies expect mortgages and well paid jobs, the Youth refuse mortgages, cars and debt and want to travel and experience life instead of work. Work is the means to an end, not a lifestyle.
Wars – Profitable for the oldies but of no interest to the youth. So when the oldies die, they are not replaced with patriots and patriotism (as in the past. WW2 patriots were replaced with George Bush types but there is no-one to replace them) but with hippies who don’t care, understand other cultures and have eroded the system by refusing to join the military. Why is it different this time? Because of cheap travel, internet providing research tools and a more connected global population. No longer fringe dwellers, the solar powered, self sufficient eco warriors are the mainstream go-getters.
Peace in 25-50 years until someone wants a better iWatch and steals it.