UK will be better but worse.

June 24, 2016

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The zillion dollar question.

UK will be better but worse.

Better from no immigrants ex-France and Germany and no requirement to pay toward them (IN theory, because they have 2 years to get out and may have to hurry to avoid upcoming bills)

Better because their currency has dropped so they are more competitive in the market (or can raise prices)

No longer tied to a bureaucratic machine that costs billions a year for membership.

Companies wanting to do business in Europe will see London as a cheap base with willing labour close to Europe but not tied to their rules.

London, as the capital city of finance, has carved out an enviable position in Europe. A much wanted product and service that costs almost nothing to move around and the only competitor is Wall Street. What a time to be alive – with a monopoly, a rapacious group of customers and you’re in charge of the rule book B’shaah tova – Auspicious times for the new child of Great Britain to be born.

Good time to buy INTO the UK.

Worse because everyone will want a pay rise because imports will cost more (Imports for manufacturing too)

There will be a recession, but, given the last decade of spending like a drunken sailor, some rain on the parade would do us all a lot of good. We need to save more and spend less on consumer goods and new houses – these purchases don’t earn money but cost us our standard of living. Time spend with the family, on hobbies now spent on paying for that new tv.

Interestingly, the Scots want IN to the EU – so expect another push for separation but probably a skilled deflection or call to be united will fix it. Expect horse trading. Reality is that Scotland don’t have enough clout to stand up to Europe (Hence the wish to join them rather than be totally independent). The reality and the dream would be very far apart. Just the European paperwork would drown Scotland. They are far better off being nimble and building their economy than wasting a fortune on paperwork.

I was in UK when Britain joined and it wasn’t popular then with 7 countries and hasn’t yielded much benefit except visa free travel (Pretty minor thing as you only holiday annually). Of course visa and border free has now bitten Europe with refugees.

I think some countries like Greece should never have been allowed to join. Rich and poor rarely share the same bed comfortably and some of those countries brought only debt to the table whilst others brought cash and assets.

With the expectation that Europe will be dragged down to the third world level by refugees within 10-15 years, exiting is good, but is like self-employment after years of a Government job. Britain needs to be nimble and get into Asia etc. not because they are out of Europe but because they need to be independent of Europe before the refugees sink that ship.

Interestingly, they face the same issue as New Zealand – an island far from their markets, so the new UK standard of living will be challenged with Asian markets but they have a widespread market already with Europe, Scandinavia etc.

They will need to stop buying toys and focus on becoming an exporter of high value goods asap.

Britain needs a massive unifier as 50% were anti, so I think a “Make Britain Great again” campaign is just over the hill. Can’t make progress pulling in opposite directions, so strong and visionary leadership is required to unite the clans. Boris could just be left field enough to do it.

Europe is losing its biggest military and diplomatic power, the world’s fifth largest economy and one of it’s biggest free-market champions.

Said another way : Europe without Britain is a nightmare. It’s all of the headache and regulation of an overbearing central government but without the push for free trade – which was frankly the only thing that made it worth doing to begin with.

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